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Science: Ensemble modeling
    Wednesday July 18, 2012 2:15pm - 2:45pm @ Toledo 5th Floor

    Science: Ensemble modeling of storm interaction with XSEDE

    Abstract: We applied TG/XSEDE HPCs to an ensemble modeling study of how thunderstorm severity depended on the proximity of nearby storms. The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to investigate 52 idealized thunderstorm scenarios, changing the position of a nearby convective cell when another was developing. We found a large impact from having any other storm cell nearby, as well as very high sensitivity to where that cell was placed. This represents a significant change from forecast thinking that currently relies on expected storm behavior guidance for a quiescent environment. We are also studying a new, tornado-scale simulation based on the above findings. 

    In carrying out this study over the last 3 years we utilized five (perhaps 6-7 by July) XSEDE HPCs, and made use of both traditional batch capabilities as well as grid-based computing. We found our greatest challenges were less in high-performance computing than in data and storage. Moving, storing, and analyzing multi-TB data sets proved to be challenging and we found our data processing could significantly degrade the performance of high-performance disk systems. In addition to the details of our study, we will discuss these experiences, how we hope to make the most of XSEDE resources and note some of the near-term and long-term challenges we expect to encounter in our numerical research.



    Type Science Track
    Session Titles Statistical Methods/Weather

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